Chaos, war and an AI bubble: A blue wave is coming, but there are ‘very perilous’ times ahead
It’s hard to predict what an demented narcissist will do.
My friend Alex Wise, the host of Sea Change Radio, sent me a text recently saying that he’s feeling hopeful about democracy. The Democrats are poised to win the House, perhaps the Senate as well. He’s still worried, though. The president is highly unstable. The Republicans cannot be trusted. “What are Democrats planning on doing to protect the country from the very perilous interregnum period from November 3 and January 1, 2027?” he asked me.
The biggest thing they are doing is raising awareness of that very fact – that the period between Election Day and the day the new Congress is seated will be very perilous. According to NPR, the Democrats have organized to warn the public that Donald Trump will claim election fraud, no matter what, and they are preparing “their state and local counterparts to act when necessary to ensure election results are honored.” Reams of lawsuits have been pre-written and are ready to be filed. Congressional Democrats are standing by. Ditto for Democratic attorneys general. There are plans underway for “a massive presence at the polls” by Democrats and outside watchdogs, according to the AP.
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The administration is already pushing boundaries. The Department of Justice is subpoenaing records from California over phony claims of noncitizens voting there. The department is launching a probe into Alaska’s Senate race, after recent reporting revealed efforts to recruit an independent candidate with the same name as the Republican incumbent, the allegation being intentional voter confusion. (I’m no expert in Alaska election law, but that’s probably not illegal, however distasteful it might seem.) There are scattered reports of DHS and ICE agents being around polling places. FBI agents are leaking their concern about being dispatched to them. The administration said it would deploy 1,000 “poll monitors.”
So far, these are half-hearted moves on Trump’s part, but even so, everyone seems to expect them and is prepared. Most of the effort will probably die in court, as most of it did after the 2020 election. His remaining moves would have to be truly dramatic to stop what’s coming – seizing ballots, arresting election officials, declaring martial law, or coordinating with Speaker Mike Johnson to refuse to certify the results. All of these would get the same saturation coverage that the J6 insurrection got, which would be bad for Trump but worse for his party, as it would justify an offensive posture previously unseen from the Democrats.
Beyond this is Trump’s biggest obstacle: a constitutional order that, in one way or another, virtually all Americans believe in. The Constitution is clear about who runs elections: states and localities. It is not the federal government. It’s sure as hell not the president. He can cry “fraud!" but that’s none of his concern, as it's in the jurisdiction of states. From the outset, it would be hard to convince Americans to overturn the constitutional order to stop a state-level crime, but that goes double for him. He’s the least popular president of our lifetimes.
Courtesy of Chris Murphy.
I don’t want to sound too optimistic, as it is hard to predict the actions of a demented narcissist. Trump will still be president. There’s a lot of damage he can do. (For instance, knock down the Kennedy Center in revenge.) That said, our focus on the domestic side of his descent may be blinding us to the international side. He’s chosen to side with Russia. He’s decided to look away from China’s espionage. The Iran war is still going badly. (The economy is still burning up.) Trump ordered a plan to ramp up the war post-midterms. US Senator Chris Murphy was brief on it. Yesterday, he said “their plan is insane,” adding “it will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law."
Murphy could not comment further on a classified briefing, but published reports suggest the plan has more of the same bombing Trump has been doing, only more of it on Iran’s energy infrastructure (ie, oil). Not only would that constitute war crimes – hence the Connecticut senator's remark about the “destruction of our commitment to the rule of law” - but it would justify Iran widening the war even more to include the energy infrastructure of the surrounding Gulf states. Bottom line: if you think diesel is expensive now, just wait.
There is a sense of the general collapse of the world order, which in turn could threaten the social order at home. Trump lifted sanctions of Russian oil and withheld arms shipments to Ukraine. The Times reported that Trump is “exploring” the idea of restoring Russia’s slush funds, which it would use to pay for its imperialist expansion. Trump, Vladimir Putin and Elon Musk appear to have conspired to sabotage Ukraine. Evidently, Musk and Trump unplugged Starshield, Ukraine’s defense uplink, while Putin launched a devastating ballistic missile strike. In response, Ukraine restarted drone attacks on Russia’s refineries, driving up the price of everything, and Russia aided drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s refineries, driving up the cost of everything. Meanwhile, China is not only helping Iran kill American soldiers. It appears to have bribed the president to cover up a spy operating in his inner circle. In the global race for advanced technology, like artificial intelligence, China looks like the winner.
Disorder is brewing in Trump’s inner circle, too. Tech stocks fell today on news that monopolies like Amazon are spending more on AI than they are taking in. Word is spreading that AI is doing what many expected: decimating the labor market. A Goldman Sachs report said “higher AI adoption is now associated with weaker employment growth and higher unemployment.” AI is already wiping out entry-level jobs, leaving people under 30 in a lurch. (There are 71 million people in Gen Z.) Spending on AI is basically floating the economy right now, as food and housing take up half of household incomes, according to Bloomberg. There will be hell to pay when that bubble bursts. Billionaires are running for cover under Trump.
Again, there’s a lot that could go sideways after the election in terms of a demented narcissist president reacting to what promises to be the greatest rejection of his life. But from where I am standing, right now, the bones of the republic are probably going to hold up, however precariously. It’s the other stuff – war and chaos and a bubble that's about the burst – that is driving me to distraction. My friend Alex is totally right. These are “very perilous” times.
In more ways than we can count.
Speaking of Alex
He had me on his show a couple of weeks ago. He wanted to talk about two pieces I wrote about Trump’s dementia, one written this month and the other right before the 2024 presidential election. The result was a segment he called "John Stoehr on Trump’s Dementia."
Alex's intro:
As we approach the midterm elections, the increasingly desperate, despotic, and diminished President of the United States is more unhinged than ever – saying he can do whatever he wants and repeatedly suggesting that Iran bomb San Diego and Los Angeles. This week on Sea Change Radio, we speak with opinion journalist John Stoehr of The Editorial Board to get his insights into the decomposing brain of Donald Trump and to contemplate what it means for this country. We discuss the role of the press in enabling the current state of affairs at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, examine options for Democrats if they’re able to regain power in November, and speculate on what lies ahead for the Republican Party after the Donald has gone.
Listen to our conversation here.
