Trump can’t win a war he can’t sell, can't sell a war he can't win

The House Republicans narrowly defeated a bipartisan war-powers resolution Thursday night that would have forced the president to come to the Congress for authorization to continue the war against Iran. The Senate voted on its own version Wednesday night. It failed. All but one Democrat voted for it. All but one Republican voted against it. 

Does that mean Donald Trump gets a free pass? Yes, for now. But I think congressional votes are a lagging indicator of political developments that are already underway and that are out of Trump's control. Even if the Congress had passed the legislation, he would likely have vetoed it. Is that the end? No, because the Congress is probably the least of his concerns.

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Trump’s biggest weakness right now stems from his biggest strength – looking like a war president on TV. This would normally be a boon, as the press corps usually drops everything to focus on war and on patriotic portrayals of the American president as a great leader. 

But with all that focus has come unwanted attention to the fact that Trump broke his word. Virtually all reporting on the Iran war has included reminders that in his 2024 victory speech, Donald Trump said: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” (Occasionally, reports cite JD Vance as a “staunch isolationist.” The vice president said there was “no chance” attacking Iran would lead to “a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight.”)

At the same time, there is a conspicuous lack of enthusiasm in reporting on the domestic politics of the war, something that would have been inconceivable in the aftermath of a national-security crisis like the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001. Back then, reporters gave George W Bush’s statements unlimited credibility, with the unspoken implication being in those cases the media's full-throated support for the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

This time, however, there is no such emergency. Iran did not pose an imminent threat to the US. Therefore, the notable restraint of today’s reporting might be interpreted as a kind of tacit skepticism of the president’s claim that attacking Iran was an act of self-defense.

If this week's votes had taken place after a 9/11-type calamity, Senate Democrats, who voted to curb the president's power, might have been put in an unfavorable light by outlets such as the AP. As things stand, the AP identified “Senate Republicans” as giving “support for a conflict that has rapidly spread across the Middle East with no clear US exit strategy.” 

The AP also said the vote was the moment that “forced them to take a stand on a war shaping the fate of US military members, countless other lives and the future of the region.” Republican Senator John Barrasso’s response to the Democrats felt weak by comparison. “Democrats would rather obstruct Donald Trump than obliterate Iran’s national nuclear program,” Barrasso said, the same program that Trump said last June was “obliterated.”

I think what's more significant is that the AP and other media organizations have consistently rejected the Republican effort to characterize the Iran war as anything but a war. The AP even assigned ownership of it to the president. “Senate Republicans voted down an effort Wednesday to halt President Donald Trump’s war against Iran.” (For God's sake, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer said with pride on Thursday that he's been calling it a war from "day one.")

Meanwhile, the Senate’s Chuck Schumer did more than take the moral high ground. The minority leader claimed for his party the anti-war position abandoned by the president. Schumer even suggested, obliquely, that the choice is simple: it's us against them.

“Today every senator — every single one — will pick a side,” he said. “Do you stand with the American people who are exhausted with forever wars in the Middle East or stand with Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth as they bumble us headfirst into another war?”

As the Democrats are claiming for themselves the anti-war mantle, maga stalwarts like Marjorie Taylor Greene are blaming Trump for betraying the banner of America First. The former Georgia congresswoman told rightwing podcaster Megyn Kelly: “Most Americans are completely against this war, because, like you said, the president has made no case for it. We live our ordinary lives and we don’t feel threatened by Iran. We don’t walk around thinking that at any moment an Iranian ballistic missile is going to land on our head. We don’t.”

This is a deadly combo for Trump.

With their vote, the Democrats say they are the real party of America First. Meanwhile, maga figures like Green give that claim credibility with the allegation that Trump is a traitor to the cause. The latter deepens maga’s already deep crisis of faith while the former dampens enthusiasm. Who are America First voters going to support? The Democrats?

If Americans were walking around wondering when "an Iranian ballistic missile is going to land on our head," Pete Hegseth's statements might be better received. "This was never meant to be a fair fight. And it is not a fair fight," the defense secretary said this week. "We are punching them while they're down, which is exactly how it should be." Without a national emergency, however, such statements don't sound noble, just barbaric. (Indeed, the Times confirmed previous reports that the US bombed an elementary school on February 28.)

Meanwhile, the president has said he should have a say in who the next leader of Iran is going to be, as if he can bully a murderous regime like he bullies white-shoe law firms. NBC News interviewed Iran's foreign minister. He was asked if he's afraid of an invasion by US troops. "No, we are waiting for them," he said. "We are confident that we can confront them, and that would be a big disaster for them. ... We were ready for this war even more than the previous war. ... We are prepared for any other eventuality, even a ground invasion."

Iran's defiance might be what Trump had in mind when he reportedly worried about how the sacrifices of war would "look" on TV. “When the mics are hot, Trump has glossed over the rising number of US military deaths, stressed that more are likely to die, and claimed he’s willing to stay in it for the long haul, “whatever it takes,’” Asawin Suebsaeng reported. 

“But privately,” Suebsaeng continued, “Trump has voiced extreme unease about how the rising American body count ‘looks,’ and few officials close to him believe he has tolerance for a protracted quagmire, sources with knowledge of the matter tell me.”

So the Democrats are united. Maga is divided. The media is uncooperative to say the least. The public is profoundly skeptical, even before reporters have begun focusing on the war dead. (Six troops were killed; 60 percent disapprove.) And that’s not to mention the material outcomes of war. Gas prices are up faster than any time since 2022. Stocks are taking a hit. 

Though the Congress is probably not going to stop the president’s illegal war, there are too many factors out of his control for him to maintain conditions needed to continue it.

Connecticut Congressman Jim Himes told CNN these factors mean, “in the context of the administration's inability to tell us how this ends … [that] eventually the American people are going to be even more sour on this war than they already are now. And I suspect what happens then is that Donald Trump just pulls the plug, declares victory and walks away."

Thousands dead. Tens of billions wasted. And nothing achieved, except perhaps, according to Jim Himes, turning Iran into an even hotter hotbed of state-sponsored terrorism.

But that’s not only the wreckage that comes from not being able to win a war you can't sell or sell a war you can't win. Here’s Massachusetts Congressman Jim McGovern: "We’re spending billions of dollars a day on a war and we can’t even get Republicans to join us to expand healthcare in America. How the hell is this America first? You broke your top campaign promise. Good luck with that. I hope the defense contractor money was worth it.”